XAUUSD · US news days · NFP

Gold on NFP day: how much gold moves after the US jobs report

On the last 19 NFP days (Jan 2025 to Oct 2026), gold's range in the hour of the release had a median of $41, 2.3 times the same hour on ordinary days; over the whole day, the median release day was 16% wider than the ordinary days before it. The release hour was wider than usual on 16 of the 19.

Measured from the release minute on 5-minute candles (the 4 releases since Jul 2026, the history we hold at that detail): in the first 15 minutes gold covered a median $69, 6.0 times the same 15 minutes on other days, and $70 in the first hour (3.0 times). The widest single 5-minute candle in those first hours was $105.

Updated 28 Oct 2026, 06:48 UTC · refreshed hourly · 19 releases since January 2025

Every jobs report since January 2025

Gold's high-to-low range in each window, and below it how many times the same window on an ordinary day (amber: twice or more). "—" where we do not hold the candles: 5-minute detail starts in May 2026.

The same data, with each window's normal value, is free as JSON: /api/v1/event-stats?symbol=XAUUSD&event=nfp.

What this tells you, and what it does not

• It measures how far gold travels, not where. A wide release hour can end where it began, and the same figure comes out after a "good" and a "bad" surprise. Nothing here says which way gold will go.
• A stop that is tight by an ordinary hour's standard sits inside a typical release hour. In the minutes after the release spreads widen and a stop can fill well past its price (slippage), so the loss can exceed what the stop distance alone suggests.
• The release-hour multiple (2.3×) is larger than the whole-day one (1.2×): much of the extra movement comes around the number itself, so a day can be wild for an hour and ordinary over its 23.
• It is history, not a forecast. How much gold reacts changes with what the market expects, and a few releases decide the averages.

How it is measured

• The release: The Employment Situation report (non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate) comes out at 08:30 New York time, usually on the first Friday of the month. That is 12:30 UTC while the US is on summer time and 13:30 UTC in winter; every window here follows the New York clock. Dates are the days the numbers really came out, from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics's official calendar (the October 2025 report was never published because of the government shutdown, and September's came out late).
• Data:COMEX gold futures (front month), the same feed as our charts. A range is the same in futures or in the spot price a broker's XAUUSD shows.
• First 15 minutes / first hour: high minus low from the release minute, from 5-minute candles (15-minute where those are missing). We hold them since May 2026.
• Release hour: the hourly candle the release falls in (08:00-09:00 New York), half an hour before the number and half an hour after it. Hourly candles go back two years, so this is the measure with every release since January 2025.
• Whole day: the CME Globex session, 18:00 to 17:00 New York time, from hourly candles; sessions with fewer than 20 of their 23 hours (early closes, gaps in the data) are left out.
• Normal:the median of the same window on the 20 weekdays before the release that had no jobs report, CPI or Fed decision (at least 10 with data). The multiple is the release's range divided by that median; the headline figures are medians over the releases.

Other US news days: Gold on CPI day · Gold on Fed decision day

Historical ranges from COMEX futures, measured, not a forecast and not investment advice. Your broker's spread and fills around a release can differ from the exchange's prices.