NGAS · stop-loss data
What is a good stop loss for Natural Gas (NGAS)?
Right now one average true range on the 1-hour chart is $0.0302 (0.97% of price). Since May 2024, a stop that close was hit within 24 hours 78% of the time — whichever way the trade was pointing. The 50/50 line is about $0.0737 (2.4 ATR) away.
How often a stop gets hit, by distance
| Stop distance | Today in price | % of price | Hit within 4 h | Hit within 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 ATR | $0.0151 | 0.48% | 62% | 88% |
| 0.75 ATR | $0.0226 | 0.73% | 49% | 83% |
| 1 ATR | $0.0302 | 0.97% | 38% | 78% |
| 1.5 ATR | $0.0452 | 1.45% | 25% | 67% |
| 2 ATR | $0.0603 | 1.94% | 17% | 58% |
| 2.5 ATR | $0.0754 | 2.42% | 12% | 49% |
| 3 ATR | $0.0905 | 2.90% | 8% | 42% |
Every hourly close since May 2024 treated as an entry, long and short, and checked for whether a stop at that distance was touched within the next 4 or 24 hours (13,406 hourly candles). Distances are in ATR(14) on the 1-hour chart and converted with today's ATR, so the price column moves with volatility. The rates are stable: measured on one year, they matched the following year to within about 1.4 percentage points on average across our markets. They describe ordinary noise, not direction.
What this means for your stop
- A stop inside one ATR is inside the noise: it gets hit on most days whether or not the trade idea was right. That is the usual reason a stop "always gets hit".
- Natural Gas (NGAS) typically covers about 5.7 ATR ($0.1707) from high to low in 24 hours.
- Wider is not automatically better: a wider stop loses more when it is hit. Decide the distance first, then size the position to it.
When you enter matters, not only where the stop is
The same stop, one ATR ($0.0302) away, was hit within 4 hours about 72% of the time when the trade was opened around 12:00 London time, and about 8% when it was opened around 22:00.
- Busiest entry hours (London): 12:00 (~72%), 11:00 (~71%), 13:00 (~67%).
- Calmest entry hours (London): 22:00 (~8%), 00:00 (~8%), 21:00 (~9%).
- A tight stop placed just before the busy hours is hit far more often than the same stop in the calm hours. Single-hour figures are approximate (on later data one hour could be off by 5-20 points); the busy-versus-calm pattern held. The calculator shows the odds for the hour you are in.
Spread and the stops you never saw coming
Your stop fires on your broker's bid or ask, not on the chart. In normal hours that moves the numbers above by only one or two points. The danger is when spreads widen: at the daily rollover around 22:00 UTC (5 pm New York), around major data releases and at the weekly open, spreads can be several times wider for a few minutes — which is how a stop gets hit on a wick the chart never showed.
Where the crowd's stops are right now
Distance and the hour set the odds. In our tests, an obvious swing low or a round number was reached no more often than any other point the same distance away, so the crowd map shows whose stops you sit beside, not how likely yours is to be hit. On the free 24-hour-delayed model, the densest modeled stop band for NGAS has its upper edge at 3.1999 and its lower edge at 3.0584.
Premium draws these odds live on your chart — the lines where a stop was hit half and a third of the time, moving with price, next to where the crowd's stops sit. See plans →
Chart prices from our market data feed; statistics recalculated weekly. Historical frequencies, not a forecast and not investment advice.