BTCUSD · stop-loss data
What is a good stop loss for Bitcoin (BTC/USD)?
Right now one average true range on the 1-hour chart is $493 (0.59% of price). Since Sept 2024, a stop that close was hit within 24 hours 74% of the time — whichever way the trade was pointing. The 50/50 line is about $1,110 (2.3 ATR) away.
How often a stop gets hit, by distance
| Stop distance | Today in price | % of price | Hit within 4 h | Hit within 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 ATR | $247 | 0.30% | 65% | 86% |
| 0.75 ATR | $370 | 0.44% | 52% | 80% |
| 1 ATR | $493 | 0.59% | 41% | 74% |
| 1.5 ATR | $740 | 0.89% | 25% | 64% |
| 2 ATR | $987 | 1.18% | 16% | 54% |
| 2.5 ATR | $1,234 | 1.48% | 10% | 46% |
| 3 ATR | $1,480 | 1.77% | 7% | 39% |
Every hourly close since Sept 2024 treated as an entry, long and short, and checked for whether a stop at that distance was touched within the next 4 or 24 hours (17,322 hourly candles). Distances are in ATR(14) on the 1-hour chart and converted with today's ATR, so the price column moves with volatility. The rates are stable: measured on one year, they matched the following year to within 1.3 percentage points on average across our markets. They describe ordinary noise, not direction.
What this means for your stop
- A stop inside one ATR is inside the noise: it gets hit on most days whether or not the trade idea was right. That is the usual reason a stop "always gets hit".
- Bitcoin (BTC/USD) typically covers about 5.5 ATR ($2,689) from high to low in 24 hours.
- Wider is not automatically better: a wider stop loses more when it is hit. Decide the distance first, then size the position to it.
Spread and the stops you never saw coming
Crypto trades around the clock and has no daily rollover, but spreads and funding still widen in thin weekend and overnight hours, and your stop fills on your exchange's order book, not on the chart.
Where the crowd's stops are right now
Distance is half of the answer. The other half is not putting your stop where everyone else puts theirs — just past the obvious swing low or round number, where orders pile up and get cleared together. On the free 24-hour-delayed model, the densest modeled stop band for BTCUSD sits at 86,704.99 above and 85,089.38 below.
Premium draws these odds live on your chart — the lines where a stop was hit half and a third of the time, moving with price, next to where the crowd's stops sit. See plans →
Chart prices from our market data feed; statistics recalculated weekly. Historical frequencies, not a forecast and not investment advice.